Prediction of Harry Pugh vs Jake Dembo at M15 Tauranga 17 Dec 2025

• Harry Pugh demonstrates slightly better second serve performance, winning 40.00% of points compared to Jake Dembo's 38.39%. Could this small margin give him an edge?
• Intriguingly, Jake Dembo excels in return games, capturing 45.45% of opponents' second serve points, surpassing Pugh's 33.33%.
• In contrast, Pugh outshines in first serve returns, achieving 38.71% against Dembo's 23.53%, a stat closely linked to match outcome predictions.
• Under pressure, Pugh has a 50.00% breakpoint save rate, which is superior to Dembo’s 40.00% and may prove pivotal in tense situations.
• Over the past year, Pugh has a higher match win percentage at 28.57% compared to Dembo’s 14.29%.
• On surfaces, Pugh's highest success rate is on Clay, with 50%, while Dembo fares better on Hard courts, also at 50%.
• The average opponent rank Pugh faces is higher (319.14) compared to Dembo (277.43), suggesting Dembo might have encountered slightly tougher competition.
• When matches extend to deciding sets, Dembo has a perfect win rate at 100%, whereas Pugh falls short with a 0% success rate.
• In terms of break point conversion, Dembo outclasses Pugh, converting 26.32% of opportunities, contrasting Pugh’s 20.00%.

Editorial Prediction (December 16, 2025, UTC):

Harry Pugh enters the upcoming match with a slight advantage in second serve performance and first serve returns, indicating solid ground game fundamentals. His ability to save breakpoints under pressure further strengthens his position, showcasing resilience in critical situations.

However, Jake Dembo's exceptional return performance, particularly his ability to win a high percentage of opponents’ second serves, stands as a significant asset. Additionally, Dembo's spotless record in deciding sets gives him a psychological edge if the match is closely contested.

Pugh's higher win rate over the past year and a proven ability to handle Clay surfaces could provide a framework for success, yet Dembo's better breakpoint conversion rate may counteract this advantage.

Weighing all factors, while both players have their strengths, Jake Dembo’s consistent success in key return statistics and deciding sets suggests he is the marginally more likely victor in this upcoming match.